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ISSN 1001-5256 (Print)
ISSN 2097-3497 (Online)
CN 22-1108/R
Volume 40 Issue 3
Mar.  2024
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Clinical Hepatology  > 2024  >  40(3): 521-526

Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting liver cirrhosis with esophagogastric variceal bleeding based on aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and platelet-albumin-bilirubin score

DOI: 10.12449/JCH240314

  • Department of Infectious Diseases，The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University，Suzhou，Jiangsu 215000，China

Research funding:

National Major Science and Technology Special Project of the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2017ZX10203201002-002);

Suzhou Health Youth Backbone Talent“National Tutorial System” Training Project (20190013990009);

Tianqing Liver Disease Research Foundation (TQGB20210134)

More Information
  • Corresponding author: CHEN Li， 756355153@qq.com （ORCID： 0000-0001-6278-5438）
  • Received Date: 2023-06-25
  • Accepted Date: 2023-07-31
  • Published Date: 2024-03-20
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To investigate the value of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index （APRI） and platelet-albumin-bilirubin （PALBI） score in predicting the risk of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis.  Methods  A total of 119 patients with liver cirrhosis who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from May 2021 and June 2022 were enrolled， and clinical data， routine blood test results， serum biochemistry， and coagulation test results were collected from all patients. According to the presence or absence of esophagogastric variceal bleeding， the patients were divided into non-bleeding group with 59 patients and bleeding group with 60 patients， and a comparative analysis was performed for the two groups. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-squared test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis and establish a nomogram predictive model.  Results  The male patients accounted for 75.00% in the bleeding group and 40.68% in the non-bleeding group， and there was a significant difference in sex composition between the two groups （χ2=14.384， P<0.001）. Chronic hepatitis B was the main etiology in both the bleeding group and the non-bleeding group （53.33% vs 38.98%）， and there was no significant difference in composition ratio between the two groups （χ2=2.464， P=0.116）. Compared with the non-bleeding group， the bleeding group had a significantly higher activity of AT-IIIA （t=3.329， P=0.001） and significantly lower levels of PLT， TBil， Ca， TC， and TT （all P<0.05）. There were significant differences in APRI and PALBI between the two groups （χ2=6.175 and 19.532， both P<0.05）. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that APRI （odds ratio ［OR］=0.309， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.109‍ ‍—‍ ‍0.881， P=0.028）， PALBI （OR=7.667， 95%CI： 2.005‍ ‍—‍ ‍29.327， P=0.003）， Ca （OR=0.001， 95%CI： 0.000‍ ‍—‍ ‍0.141， P=0.007）， TC （OR=0.469， 95%CI： 0.226‍ ‍—‍ ‍0.973， P=0.042）， and TT （OR=0.599， 95%CI： 0.433‍ ‍—‍ ‍0.830， P=0.002） were independent influencing factors for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis. A nomogram model was established based on the above factors and had an index of concordance of 0.899 and a well-fitted calibration curve.  Conclusion  APRI and PALBI have a good value in predicting esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis， and the nomogram model established based on this study can predict the incidence rate of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis.

     

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