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细胞因子联合终末期肝病模型评分对终末期肝病并发肝性脑病的诊断价值

向劲宇 常丽仙 张映媛 木唤 李文彦 魏红艳 刘春云 刘立

引用本文:
Citation:

细胞因子联合终末期肝病模型评分对终末期肝病并发肝性脑病的诊断价值

DOI: 10.12449/JCH260721
基金项目: 

昆明市科技计划项目 (2024-1-NS-0035)

伦理学声明:本研究方案于2026年1月5日经由昆明市第三人民医院伦理委员会审批通过,批号:KSYXLL202601-001,所有患者均签署知情同意书。
利益冲突声明:本文不存在任何利益冲突。
作者贡献声明:刘春云负责设计论文框架,起草和修改论文;向劲宇负责实验操作,研究过程的实施;常丽仙、张映媛、木唤、李文彦和魏红艳负责数据收集,统计学分析,绘制图表;刘立负责拟定写作思路,指导撰写文章并最后定稿。
详细信息
    通信作者:

    刘春云, 751440760@qq.com (ORCID: 0000-0001-5343-5305)

Diagnostic value of cytokines combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in predicting hepatic encephalopathy in end-stage liver disease

Research funding: 

Kunming Science and Technology Plan Project (2024-1-NS-0035)

More Information
    Corresponding author: Liu Chunyun, 751440760@qq.com (ORCID: 0000-0001-5343-5305)
  • 摘要:   目的  通过联合细胞因子及终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分等关键指标,构建并验证终末期肝病(ESLD)患者并发肝性脑病(HE)的预测模型,为临床早期识别高危人群、优化干预策略提供循证依据。  方法  回顾性选取2022年1月—2024年12月昆明市第三人民医院收治的2 167例ESLD患者为研究对象,采用分层随机抽样法将ESLD患者按7∶3比例分为训练集(n=1 517)与验证集(n=650)。对训练集采用单因素分析及最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归筛选潜在影响变量,随后构建二元Logistic回归模型以识别ESLD患者并发HE的独立影响因素,基于该模型建立列线图预测模型,进行霍斯默-莱梅肖(H-L)拟合优度检验。通过对验证集采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)、校准曲线、决策曲线分析(DCA)、临床影响曲线(CIC)对训练集预测模型的拟合度、准确性、一致性和临床实用性等进行多维度综合评价。非正态分布的的计量资料两组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料2组间比较采用χ2检验或Fisher确切概率法。  结果  单因素分析结果显示,研究组与对照组在年龄、性别、血氨(NH3)、淋巴细胞、血红蛋白、血小板计数、凝血酶原时间、纤维蛋白原、国际标准化比值(INR)、总胆红素、天冬氨酸氨基转移酶、总蛋白、白蛋白、前白蛋白、碱性磷酸酶、胆碱酯酶、总胆汁酸、甘油三酯、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、低密度脂蛋白、血糖、CD3+ T细胞计数、CD4+ T细胞计数、CD8+ T细胞计数、超敏C反应蛋白、癌胚抗原、三碘甲状腺原氨酸、甲状腺素(T4)、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸、游离甲状腺素、白细胞介素(IL)-1β、IL-5、IL-6、IL-8、IL-12p70、IL-17、干扰素-γ以及MELD评分方面,差异均有统计学意义(P值<0.05)。LASSO回归分析筛选出年龄、NH3、白蛋白、前白蛋白、胆碱酯酶、总胆固醇、T4、IL-17、MELD评分等9个变量;进一步二元Logistic回归分析显示,NH3、IL-17和MELD评分为ESLD患者发生HE的独立危险因素,年龄、T4为独立保护因素(P值<0.05)。基于上述5个变量构建列线图预测模型,训练集的H-L拟合优度检验显示模型拟合良好(P=0.207),McFadden伪R2为0.184,提示模型具有可接受的解释力;内部验证集的H-L拟合优度检验进一步验证了模型的校准稳定性(P=0.067),提示模型在独立数据中仍具有较好的拟合效果。验证集ROC曲线下面积为0.784、敏感度为0.710、特异度为0.752,校准曲线的平均绝对误差为0.067,DCA和CIC分析显示列线图预测模型具有正向净获益和良好的临床实用性。  结论  基于年龄、NH3、T4、IL-17和MELD评分构建的ESLD患者发生HE的列线图预测模型具有较好的拟合度、准确性、一致性,同时具有良好的临床实用性。

     

  • 注: a,LASSO交叉验证偏差曲线;b,LASSO回归系数变化曲线。

    图  1  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的LASSO回归分析

    Figure  1.  Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    注: MELD,终末期肝病模型。

    图  2  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的列线图预测模型

    Figure  2.  Nomogram prediction model for hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    注: a,训练集;b验证集。

    图  3  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的受试者操作特征曲线

    Figure  3.  ROC curve of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    注: a,训练集;b验证集。

    图  4  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的校准曲线

    Figure  4.  Calibration curves of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    注: a,训练集;b验证集。

    图  5  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的临床决策曲线

    Figure  5.  Decision curve analysis curves of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    注: a,训练集;b验证集。

    图  6  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的临床影响曲线

    Figure  6.  Clinical impact curve of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    表  1  训练集中研究组与对照组的临床资料比较

    Table  1.   Comparison of clinical data between the study group and the control group in the training set

    变量 对照组(n=1 033) 研究组(n=484) 统计值 P
    年龄(岁) 55.00(49.00~61.00) 53.00(48.00~59.00) Z=-3.574 <0.001
    性别[例(%)] χ2=5.271 0.022
    782(75.70) 392(80.99)
    251(24.30) 92(19.09)
    吸烟史[例(%)] χ2=0.817 0.366
    523(50.63) 233(48.14)
    510(49.37) 251(51.86)
    饮酒史[例(%)] χ2=0.018 0.893
    470(45.50) 222(45.87)
    563(54.50) 262(54.13)
    NH3(μmol/L) 32.20(22.30~43.50) 49.75(38.20~67.73) Z=-16.478 <0.001
    WBC(×109/L) 4.30(3.14~5.83) 4.09(2.99~5.83) Z=-1.182 0.237
    Lym(×109/L) 0.97(0.65~1.37) 0.85(0.57~1.26) Z=-3.803 <0.001
    NE(×109/L) 2.64(1.85~3.83) 2.55(1.73~4.07) Z=-0.546 0.585
    Hb(g/L) 132.00(109.00~151.00) 121.50(97.00~158.50) Z=-5.656 <0.001
    PLT(×109/L) 97.00(67.00~146.00) 80.00(55.00~119.00) Z=-5.650 <0.001
    PT(s) 15.60(14.30~17.30) 16.90(15.50~19.00) Z=-11.213 <0.001
    FIB(g/L) 2.46(1.91~3.15) 2.02(1.55~2.71) Z=-7.966 <0.001
    INR 1.26(1.14~1.45) 1.43(1.27~1.65) Z=-12.275 <0.001
    TBil(μmol/L) 22.90(15.20~38.90) 34.85(21.40~63.25) Z=-9.064 <0.001
    AST(U/L) 44.00(30.00~77.00) 49.00(35.00~95.00) Z=-4.109 <0.001
    ALT(U/L) 32.00(21.00~52.00) 34.00(22.00~59.00) Z=-1.913 0.056
    TP(g/L) 65.80(59.75~71.55) 62.70(56.65~68.40) Z=-6.413 <0.001
    Alb(g/L) 34.20(28.60~39.20) 29.60(25.83~34.68) Z=-9.922 <0.001
    PA(mg/L) 112.70(71.50~173.00) 77.50(49.15~117.40) Z=-9.863 <0.001
    GGT(U/L) 69.00(34.00~147.00) 63.50(33.00~161.00) Z=-0.421 0.674
    ALP(U/L) 125.00(92.00~182.50) 143.00(102.00~219.75) Z=-4.309 <0.001
    ChE(U/L) 4 238.00(2 735.00~6 123.00) 2 978.00(2 025.50~4 355.00) Z=-9.829 <0.001
    TBA(μmol/L) 17.70(5.95~44.60) 36.60(15.63~86.25) Z=-8.686 <0.001
    TG(mmol/L) 0.90(0.65~1.28) 0.75(0.53~1.16) Z=-5.257 <0.001
    TC(mmol/L) 3.70(2.97~4.42) 3.21(2.48~3.91) Z=-7.581 <0.001
    HDL(mmol/L) 0.95(0.67~1.20) 0.86(0.48~1.19) Z=-3.809 <0.001
    LDL(mmol/L) 2.11(1.60~2.79) 1.78(1.28~2.33) Z=-7.222 <0.001
    Cr(μmol/L) 63.00(53.00~76.00) 62.50(49.00~78.75) Z=-0.035 0.972
    UA(μmol/L) 321.00(262.00~394.50) 308.00(247.00~397.75) Z=-1.659 0.097
    GLU(mmol/L) 5.40(4.89~6.46) 5.55(4.95~7.20) Z=-2.594 0.009
    CD3+T细胞(个/μL) 659.92(438.39~986.99) 591.57(395.91~837.72) Z=-4.433 <0.001
    CD4+T细胞(个/μL) 394.09(257.61~598.76) 325.93(207.77~531.55) Z=-2.588 <0.001
    CD8+T细胞(个/μL) 216.75(131.91~351.68) 198.59(118.99~318.88) Z=-0.422 0.010
    CD19+B细胞(个/μL) 136.50(80.66~214.98) 141.11(76.77~228.95) Z=-3.724 0.673
    hs-CRP(mg/L) 3.56(1.03~14.84) 5.16(1.41~19.09) Z=-2.926 0.003
    AFP(ng/mL) 6.22(2.93~126.23) 7.77(3.08~110.32) Z=-0.889 0.374
    CEA(ng/mL) 2.93(1.84~4.38) 3.27(2.24~4.85) Z=-4.261 <0.001
    TSH(μIU/mL) 2.25(1.41~3.57) 2.18(1.35~3.26) Z=-1.570 0.116
    T3(nmol/L) 1.45(1.15~1.80) 1.25(0.99~1.65) Z=-6.060 <0.001
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  终末期肝病患者发生肝性脑病的二元Logistic回归分析

    Table  2.   Binary Logistic regression analysis of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with end-stage liver disease

    变量 β SE OR 95%CI Wald P
    年龄 -0.023 0.006 0.978 0.965~0.990 12.329 <0.001
    NH3 0.034 0.003 1.035 1.029~1.041 121.924 <0.001
    Alb -0.024 0.014 0.976 0.951~1.003 3.096 0.078
    PA -0.002 0.002 0.998 0.995~1.001 1.112 0.292
    ChE 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000~1.000 0.035 0.851
    TC -0.108 0.060 0.898 0.798~1.009 3.272 0.070
    T4 -0.005 0.002 0.995 0.991~0.999 7.744 0.005
    IL-17 0.005 0.002 1.005 1.001~1.008 8.141 0.004
    MELD评分 0.030 0.010 1.030 1.010~1.051 8.655 0.003

    注:NH3,血氨;Alb,白蛋白;PA,前白蛋白;ChE,胆碱酯酶;TC,总胆固醇;T4,甲状腺素;IL-17,白细胞介素17;MELD,终末期肝病模型;OR,比值比;CI,置信区间

    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  .   (continued)

    变量 对照组(n=1 033) 研究组(n=484) 统计值 P
    T4(nmol/L) 94.59(75.34~117.70) 78.92(60.48~101.64) Z=-8.050 <0.001
    FT3(pmol/L) 3.85(3.10~4.57) 3.64(2.86~4.47) Z=-3.166 0.002
    FT4(pmol/L) 15.36(13.11~17.53) 14.83(12.23~17.02) Z=-3.503 <0.001
    IL-1β(pg/mL) 2.00(1.04~5.97) 2.24(1.27~7.23) Z=-2.147 0.032
    IL-2(pg/mL) 1.63(0.94~2.83) 1.69(0.99~2.98) Z=-1.582 0.114
    IL-4(pg/mL) 1.44(0.86~2.25) 1.45(0.86~2.17) Z=-0.159 0.874
    IL-5(pg/mL) 1.25(0.72~2.37) 1.55(0.93~2.75) Z=-3.995 <0.001
    IL-6(pg/mL) 11.10(4.87~29.88) 14.92(6.38~38.85) Z=-3.527 <0.001
    IL-8(pg/mL) 21.96(9.09~54.86) 27.31(8.13~77.32) Z=-2.097 0.036
    IL-10(pg/mL) 4.67(2.82~7.49) 4.76(2.49~8.18) Z=-0.292 0.770
    IL-12p70(pg/mL) 1.93(1.33~2.96) 1.99(1.45~3.28) Z=-2.182 0.029
    IL-17(pg/mL) 7.96(3.03~15.29) 10.36(3.43~23.22) Z=-3.939 <0.001
    IFN-γ(pg/mL) 2.10(0.99~5.23) 3.13(1.59~6.92) Z=-5.242 <0.001
    IFN-α(pg/mL) 1.74(1.07~2.93) 1.86(1.18~3.13) Z=-1.879 0.060
    TNF-α(pg/mL) 2.00(1.02~4.28) 1.95(1.04~3.91) Z=-0.254 0.799
    MELD评分(分) 7.00(4.00~11.00) 10.00(6.00~15.00) Z=-9.617 <0.001

    注:NH3,血氨;WBC,白细胞计数;Lym,淋巴细胞;NE,中性粒细胞;Hb,血红蛋白;PLT,血小板计数;PT,凝血酶原时间;FIB,纤维蛋白原;TBil,总胆红素;AST,天冬氨酸氨基转移酶;ALT,丙氨酸氨基转移酶;TP,总蛋白;Alb,白蛋白;PA,前白蛋白;GGT,γ-谷氨酰转移酶;ALP,碱性磷酸酶;ChE,胆碱酯酶;TBA,总胆汁酸;TG,甘油三酯;TC,总胆固醇;HDL,高密度脂蛋白;LDL,低密度脂蛋白;Cr,肌酐;UA,尿酸;GLU,血糖;hs-CRP,超敏C反应蛋白;AFP,甲胎蛋白;CEA,癌胚抗原;TSH,促甲状腺素;T3,三碘甲状腺原氨酸;T4,甲状腺素;FT3,游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸;FT4,游离甲状腺素;IL-1β,白细胞介素1β;IL-2,白细胞介素2;IL-4,白细胞介素4;IL-5,白细胞介素5;IL-6,白细胞介素6;IL-8,白细胞介素8;IL-10,白细胞介素10;IL-12p70,白细胞介素12p70;IL-17,白细胞介素17;IFN-γ,干扰素γ;IFN-α,干扰素α;TNF-α,肿瘤坏死因子α;MELD,终末期肝病模型。

    下载: 导出CSV
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