中文English
ISSN 1001-5256 (Print)
ISSN 2097-3497 (Online)
CN 22-1108/R
Volume 39 Issue 11
Nov.  2023
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents

Trend and prediction of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2023.11.010
Research funding:

Harbin Medical University Affiliated Cancer Hospital Haiyan Fundation (JJQN2020-16)

More Information
  • Corresponding author: JIANG Yang, jy850121@163.com (ORCID: 0009-0009-1015-2132)
  • Received Date: 2023-02-12
  • Accepted Date: 2023-04-07
  • Published Date: 2023-11-28
  •   Objective  To investigate the situation and development trend of the disease burden of acute hepatitis B in China in 1990 — 2019.  Methods  The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to analyze the incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of acute hepatitis B in different sex and age groups and predict the trend of the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B.  Results  In 2019, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China were 1 623.71/100 000, 0.20/100 000, and 10.04/100 000 respectively, which were reduced by 42.03%, 79.38%, and 80.21%, respectively, compared with the data in 1990, and women showed lower incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B than men. In 2019, the 20~<54 years group had the highest incidence rate (2 285.85/100 000) and DALY rate (10.53/100 000), and the ≥55 years group had the highest mortality rate of 0.52/100 000. The Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of acute hepatitis B in China tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percent change of -1.9%, -5.2%, and -5.5%, respectively (P<0.05). The grey prediction model GM (1,1) showed that the incidence rate of acute hepatitis B will decrease from 2020 to 2030 in China.  Conclusion  The disease burden of acute hepatitis B tended to decrease from 1990 to 2019 in China, indicating that the prevention and treatment measures for acute hepatitis B have achieved a marked effect in China; however, due to the large population base of China, active preventive measures should be further adopted to reduce the disease burden of acute hepatitis B.

     

  • loading
  • [1]
    2019 HEPATITIS B COLLABORATORS GBD. Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol, 2022, 7( 9): 796- 829. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-1253(22)00124-8.
    [2]
    WHO. Global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis 2016- 2021[EB/OL]. Towards Ending Viral Hepatitis. http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/246177. http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/246177
    [3]
    LIU J, LIANG WN, JING WZ, et al. Countdown to 2030: Eliminating hepatitis B disease, China[J]. Bull World Health Organ, 2019, 97( 3): 230- 238. DOI: 10.2471/BLT.18.219469.
    [4]
    WANG FS, FAN JG, ZHANG Z, et al. The global burden of liver disease: The major impact of China[J]. Hepatology, 2014, 60( 6): 2099- 2108. DOI: 10.1002/hep.27406.
    [5]
    WHO. Global hepatitis report, 2017[R/OL]. http://www.who.int/hepatitis/publications/global-hepatitis-report2017/en/. http://www.who.int/hepatitis/publications/global-hepatitis-report2017/en/
    [6]
    JIN GM, ZOU MJ, ZHANG YC, et al. Time trends, associations and global burden of intraocular foreign bodies[J]. Br J Ophthalmol, 2022, 106( 3): 435- 439. DOI: 10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-317063.
    [7]
    COLLABORATORS G 2 DAI. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J]. Lancet, 2020, 396( 10258): 1204- 1222. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9.
    [8]
    KIM HJ, FAY MP, FEUER EJ, et al. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J]. Stat Med, 2000, 19( 3): 335- 351. DOI: 3.0.co;2-z">10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000215)19: 3<335: aid-sim336>3.0.co;2-z.
    [9]
    YANG XB, ZOU JJ, KONG DG, et al. The analysis of GM(1, 1) grey model to predict the incidence trend of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Wuhan City, China[J]. Medicine, 2018, 97( 34): e11787. DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000011787.
    [10]
    KABORE HJ, LI X, ALLEMAN MM, et al. Progress toward hepatitis B control and elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus-World Health Organization African region, 2016-2021[J]. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2023, 72( 29): 782- 787. DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7229a2.
    [11]
    REVILL P, TESTONI B, LOCARNINI S, et al. Global strategies are required to cure and eliminate HBV infection[J]. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol, 2016, 13( 4): 239- 248. DOI: 10.1038/nrgastro.2016.7.
    [12]
    JING WZ, LIU J, LIU M. Eliminating mother-to-child transmission of HBV: Progress and challenges in China[J]. Front Med, 2020, 14( 1): 21- 29. DOI: 10.1007/s11684-020-0744-2.
    [13]
    LIANG XF, BI SL, YANG WZ, et al. Reprint of: Epidemiological serosurvey of Hepatitis B in China: Declining HBV prevalence due to Hepatitis B vaccination[J]. Vaccine, 2013, 31( Suppl 9): J21- J28. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.08.012.
    [14]
    LIU J, ZHANG S, WANG Q, et al. Prevalence of HBsAg/HBeAg amongst 1 936 801 couples preparing for pregnancy in rural China: An observational study[J]. J Viral Hepat, 2017, 24( 8): 679- 686. DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12693.
    [15]
    LIAO XY, LIANG ZL. Strategy vaccination against hepatitis B in China[J]. Hum Vaccin Immunother, 2015, 11( 6): 1534- 1539. DOI: 10.4161/21645515.2014.980206.
    [16]
    LIU ZX, LI MY, HUTTON DW, et al. Impact of the national hepatitis B immunization program in China: A modeling study[J]. Infect Dis Poverty, 2022, 11( 1): 106. DOI: 10.1186/s40249-022-01032-5.
    [17]
    SU X, ZHENG L, ZHANG HM, et al. Secular trends of acute viral hepatitis incidence and mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030: The global burden of disease study 2019[J]. Front Med, 2022, 9: 842088. DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.842088.
    [18]
    ZHANG C, LIU YQ, ZHAO H, et al. Global patterns and trends in total burden of hepatitis B from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030[J]. Clin Epidemiol, 2022, 14: 1519- 1533. DOI: 10.2147/CLEP.S389853.
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Figures(1)  / Tables(4)

    Article Metrics

    Article views (154) PDF downloads(34) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return